Friday, June 15, 2012

Consistency and Aggression Index for IPL 2012


Here is my simple way of calculating Consistency and Aggression in IPL
1.       Consistency Index = (TOTAL RUNS/ABS(HIGH SCORE – AVERAGE)) + 10 * No. of 100’s + 5* No. of 50’s + 1* No. of Not outs
2.       Aggression Factor = (%RUNS IN BOUNDARIES) *((100-Strike Rate)/10)
Note: They do not include the IPL 2012 finals between CSK and KKR.

IPL 2012 Top 10 most consistent players
Rank
Player
Cons. Index
1
DJ Bravo
228
2
CH Gayle
56
3
SPD Smith
53
4
JP Duminy
43
5
G Gambhir
41
6
CL White
39
7
S Dhawan
38
8
V Sehwag
34
9
AM Rahane
34
10
RG Sharma
31
11
AB de Villiers
28
12
DPMD Jayawardene
27
13
R Dravid
26
14
F du Plessis
25
15
OA Shah
24


IPL 2012 Top 10 most aggressive players
Rank
Player
Aggression Factor
1
CH Gayle
49
2
DA Warner
35
3
KP Pietersen
31
4
AB de Villiers
29
5
SR Watson
28
6
MA Agarwal
28
7
KA Pollard
24
8
V Sehwag
24
9
DJ Bravo
22
10
CL White
21
11
OA Shah
15
12
BJ Hodge
15
13
SPD Smith
14
14
AT Rayudu
14
15
Azhar Mahmood
13
15
F du Plessis
13
15
G Gambhir
13
15
JP Duminy
13
15
DJ Hussey
13

There are 45 players with consistency index of >10. The list could be shortened to 14 if consistency of 25 was made as the par. Consistency of 25 would literally put the player in the most desired top/middle order batsman. The only team to have two batsmen in top 10 of the consistency index is Deccan Chargers – ironically the team to finish on the bottom of IPL 2012. How DC didn’t make it to play off is a totally new topic.
Although consistency is a preferred index it cannot stand alone as players ability as match winner. For example we have Saurav Ganguly with consistency index of 10. Having played almost all the matches this season he has been consistent in the amount of runs he scored. However, he didn’t influence the result of any game in particular. This presents us with a problem, that a consistent player though desired may not be a match winner. Consequently, we need another parameter that in conjunction with consistency index can actually be a representation of player’s ability to be a match winner.
I termed it as “Aggression Index”. In the contest of bat and ball, in the context of T20, we all are waiting for is for the batsman to attack. In Simple terms aggression in the shortest format of the game is ability to score boundaries very frequently.  Aggression factor of >10 clearly indicates a feared batsman capable of scoring at more than run at a ball and punishing bad balls.

Case Study 1: Chris Gayle
The one batsman that is both consistent and aggressive. You really don’t need my table to evaluate his tactics. He is perhaps most consistently destructive batsman in the shorter format of the game. A brief glance at previous two IPL’s will reveal the force he was in the RCB’s wins. With consistency factor and aggression factor of about 50, he is perhaps the most prized batsman in IPL.
Case Study 2: Dwayne Bravo
CF: >50; AF: >20. Success of CSK in crucial matches all boiled down to this match winner. Let it be last over heroics when chasing, brief hurry of runs while batting first; Bravo was the player that stood up. The fact that he didn’t get to bat in the final speaks volumes about CSK batting unit clicking in that match. Bravo’s unique ability comes from batting with the tail and ability to hold one side even when team mates are falling on the other side. And count in his ability to bowl, you have a definite match winner here. So sad to see MI had to let him go for Pollard.
Case Study 3: Dave Warner
CF: < 10; AF: > 20. Dave warner as you can see is a hit or miss. Though very aggressive he lacks consistency. The fact that he even has CF close to 10 is coz of the hundred (which is a significant achievement in T20). Given he was playing with Sehwag at the other end makes it a lot different. Sehwag is consistent and aggressive, while DW is aggressive. This combination should have been ideal for DD’s walk to the final, till they decided to give the match away to KKR and then to CSK’s brilliance. 

12 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Great analysis. I would like too see who are among top 10 in consistency index if you look at last 5 seasons of IPL. I would guess Gayle, gambhir, watson, Kallis, Hussey, Shaun marsh will in the top. Bravo and dhoni may not be in top 10 because they wont bat up in the order

You will have a huge sample size and gives a true consistency index

RP

11:13 AM  
Blogger Opinions and Beliefs said...

2008:
Shaun Marsh, Suresh Raina, Shane Watson, Gautam Gambhir, Shikhar Dhawan, Yusuf Pathan, Adam Gilchrist, MS Dhoni, Rohit Sharma and Robin Uthappa

2009
JP Duminy, ML Hayden, Tillakaratne Dilshan, AB de Villiers, MS Dhoni, Herschelle Gibbs, Brad Hodge, Dinesh Karthik, Jacques Kallis and
Adam Gilchrist

2010
AC Voges, Jacques Kallis, Kevin Pietersen, Sachin Tendulkar, Andrew Symonds, Suresh Raina, Sourav Ganguly, Subramaniam Badrinath and
Saurabh Tiwary
Robin Uthappa

2011
Subramaniam Badrinath, Chris Gayle
Manoj Tiwary, Virat Kohli, Michael Hussey, Ambati Rayudu, Sachin Tendulkar, Suresh Raina, Jacques Kallis and Shaun Marsh

I guess Dhoni's case is unique. He is always in top 20 in both aggression and consistency for the first three seasons. Have the whole excel sheet if you are interested :).

11:23 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

A mathematical observation. Why do you need a 'absolute' in ABS(HIGH SCORE – AVERAGE) ? An average can never be higher than the highest score?

11:33 AM  
Blogger Opinions and Beliefs said...

I thought so too....... but then there were two complications
1. When there is a tailender with many not outs.... the average is greater than highest score.
2. My objective was to have an index of showing that player with least difference between average and high score and for most of the players there is no need for ABS.

12:05 PM  
Blogger arahant said...

Nice analysis, Shiva! However, I see a potential problem with your consistency analysis.
Consistency Index = (TOTAL RUNS/ABS(HIGH SCORE – AVERAGE)) + 10 * No. of 100’s + 5* No. of 50’s + 1* No. of Not outs

So if a batsman was consistently 40 N.O, he would score quite low using this formala.

I suggest you tweak the average to "run average" (irrespective of whether batsman is out or not).

Raj

6:11 PM  
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